⚔️ War, geopolitics and gold
Conflicts usually spark short-lived spikes; what lasts is their effect on inflation, rates and reserve managers.
Neutral Middle East conflict acting via oil and rates, not haven buying
Monthly averages show the typical pattern: Gulf crisis 1990 +9% then back to pre-war levels by Feb 1991; 9/11 +4%; Iraq 2003 rose before the invasion and fell 9% after it began; Crimea 2014 +7% then lower by year-end; Ukraine 2022 +7% by March, then −15% by October as the Fed hiked; Israel–Hamas 2023 +6%, then central-bank buying took over.
The 1979–80 spike (+72%) coincided with double-digit inflation. Lasting effects come through oil, inflation, Fed policy and sanctions (e.g. the 2022 freezing of Russian reserves boosted central-bank gold buying). In 2026, Middle East conflict lifted oil and hike expectations — and gold fell.